Could your face be the key's to Facebook's future?

Facebook - Market Level Research

The following is a recent case study I completed in researching markets Facebook could focus in turning their DeepFace technology into a viable consumer product. I'd be excited to hear your thoughts or opinions. 

Problem Statement

I am a non-tech user who forgets passwords and has trouble typing on small screens such as a mobile phone. My problem is that many sites require different passwords and it is time staking to log in repeatedly to pay bills, shop or identify myself online. If I could solve this problem, this is how my life would be better: I'd feel confident when surfing the internet and interacting with my devices.

Market Research

Estimates calculate Facebook has more than 1.3 Billion monthly active users in Q2 2014. For mobile users, estimates claim more than 945 million users in Q4 2013 [1]. The following market research will attempt to find a suitable market segment to target for initial product development leveraging facial recognition.

Current Biometric Recognition Market

Mastercard conducted employee trials using voice & facial recognition with reported 98% accuracy rates taking about 10 seconds per transaction [2].

How big is the segment?

Biometrics Research Group, Inc. estimates that the global biometrics market will grow to $15 billion by 2015 [3].

• With fingerprint identification being a majority share of about $10 billion.
• Face, iris, vein, and voice recognition biometric technologies together form the second largest segment.

The research consultancy expects that worldwide mobile payment transactions will reach $250 billion in 2014, reaching $750 billion in annual transactions with more than 700 million users by 2020 [4].

Segmentation Breakdown [5]. e.g.

• Application Type
• Face
• Finger Print, etc.
• End users
• Government
• Defense Services
• Banking and Finance
• Consumer Electronics
• Mobile Commerce
• Healthcare, etc.
• Region
• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific

Cross referencing estimates above for potential facial recognition with mobile payment estimates. Facebook could seek to gain more than $5 billion within 2015. With even more potential if Facebook's product generated profit based on every mobile transaction.

Market drivers and inhibitors

• Increased familiarity and demand for making mobile payments will drive need for more secure methods by mobile users.
• Facial recognition does not require new hardware other than a camera. Unlike fingerprint and scanners. [6]

Current market share

Facebook itself does not appear to have market share for using facial recognition. But other players in the market are splitting potentially upward of $5 billion per year.

What problems remain in the market?

Concerns by public and government sectors about privacy issues around facial recognition may cause delays in adoption in certain countries. In February, U.S. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) raised concerns after a hacked Google Glass application was released leveraging facial recognition techniques [7].

References

[1] - http://www.computerworlduk.com/news/security/3573009/mastercard-trials-voice-and-face-recognition-mobile-payment-technology/
[2] - http://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/
[3]- http://www.biometricupdate.com/research
[4] - http://www.biometricupdate.com/201309/mobile-commerce-will-drive-millions-of-biometric-smartphone-shipments-billions-in-transactions
[5] - https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140609090140-173774513-biometrics-technology-market-share
[6] - http://www.biometricupdate.com/201409/top-biometrics-news-stories-week-ending-september-21
[7] - http://www.franken.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=2699